Negotiated wage growth set to firm in early 2027 before easing
• Headline tracker: 2.3% for 2026, 2.8% in H1 2027 and 2.4% in Q3
• Excluding one-off payments, growth averages 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, vs 2.6% in 2026
• H2 2026 and H1 2027 estimates revised up about 0.1 percentage point on average
• Coverage falls from 46.2% in 2026 to 23.3% in Q3 2027; forward figures reflect active agreements, not forecasts