Forecasters raise 2026–27 inflation outlook, with Middle East energy effects expected mainly next year
• HICP inflation: 3.0% in 2026 (+0.3pp), 2.6% in 2027 (+0.4pp), 2.0% in 2028 (unchanged)
• 2031 headline and core inflation expectations steady at 2.0%; second-round effects expected to remain limited
• Inflation risks tilted upward through 2028; more balanced thereafter
• GDP growth seen at 1.0% in 2026 (+0.4pp), 1.3% in 2027 (+0.1pp) and 2028 (unchanged)
• Growth risks tilted somewhat to the downside at all horizons; unemployment at 6.4% in 2026, easing to 6.1% longer term