Dauch raised its 2026 sales outlook but lowered its adjusted EBITDA target, citing customer production volatility, inflation and higher energy costs heading into the fourth quarter. The company also gave preliminary third-quarter results, including an expected net loss, and updated its assumptions for vehicle production across major markets.
Key details
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Preliminary third-quarter results: Dauch expects a net loss attributable to the company of $42 million to $47 million and adjusted EBITDA of $355 million to $360 million for the three months ended Sept. 30. The figures are estimates and may change as the company completes its financial close and review.
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The adjusted EBITDA figure includes substantial add-backs: Dauch’s preliminary reconciliation puts EBITDA before those adjustments at $267 million to $272 million. The company adds back $88 million of items, led by $47 million in restructuring and acquisition-related costs and a $31 million mark-to-market loss on derivatives assumed in the Dowlais acquisition. The reconciliation also includes $3 million of unrealized foreign-exchange losses, $1 million of debt refinancing and redemption costs, and $6 million of acquisition-intangible amortization. Interest expense was $87 million, income tax expense $14 million, and depreciation and amortization $213 million.
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2026 sales outlook increased: Dauch now expects full-year sales of $10.8 billion to $10.875 billion, including the effects of metal-market pass-throughs. Its prior range was $10.6 billion to $10.8 billion.
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2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook reduced: The company now expects adjusted EBITDA of $1.35 billion to $1.375 billion, compared with its previous target of $1.36 billion to $1.425 billion. The midpoint of the new range is $30 million below the midpoint of the previous range.
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Adjusted free cash flow range narrowed: Dauch said it is narrowing that outlook closer to the midpoint of its previously announced range, but did not provide the revised range in this update.
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Updated production assumptions for 2026: Dauch’s outlook is based on estimated production of about 15.0 million vehicles in North America, 17.2 million in Europe, 31.0 million in China and 91.6 million globally.
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Factors weighing on the outlook: Dauch cited select customer production volatility, rising inflation and increasing energy costs as continuing headwinds into the fourth quarter.
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Full results due Nov. 6: Dauch plans to release complete third-quarter results before the market opens and hold a conference call at 10 a.m. Eastern time.
The outlook revisions draw a distinction between sales and profitability: the sales target rose, partly reflecting metal pass-throughs, while the adjusted EBITDA target fell. Adjusted EBITDA is a company-defined, non-GAAP measure that excludes items such as restructuring and acquisition costs; it is not a substitute for net income and may not be directly comparable with similarly named measures at other companies.